Magical Probability Calculator

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Here is a Processing sketch that calculates magical probability per Peter Carroll’s first three equations of magic from Liber Kaos [1]:

1. M = GL(1 − A)(1 − R)
2. P_m = P + (1 − P) × M^1/P
3. P_m = P − P × M^{1/(1 − P)}

Edited (2016-01-13) to remove link to Java applet version since it no longer works predictably. Here is a somewhat improved version, also made with Processing, and here is a JavaScript version.

Operation

Use the blue sliders to manipulate the variables. The green and red bars show how natural (P)robability is adjusted by the amount of (M)agical power — (G)nosis and (L)ink increase magical power, (A)wareness and (R)esistance decrease it. The green bar shows magical influence on manifesting a desired outcome (→ 1.0); the red bar shows magical influence on preventing an undesired outcome (→ 0.0). Both bars become brighter as magical power increases.

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Notes & References

1. 1. Peter J. Carroll, Liber Kaos (Boston: Weiser Books, 1992) 41–51. In The Octavo, Carroll changed the formula for M to GLSB, i.e. Gnosis, Link, Subliminialization, and Belief, each from 0 to 1, and all multiplied together.